Geoffrey Moore’s seminal book on the migration of technology usage from early to mainstream, Crossing the Chasm (1991), is widely seen as “the bible for bringing cutting-edge products to larger markets.” The book provides the perfect framework to view the moment we’re about to face with Industry 4.0. For those unfamiliar with the work, we’re talking about the moment when use of a technology or product moves from the early adopters, who are often interested in technology simply because it is novel, to the early majority, who are interested because they are able to see practical benefit.
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Some 30 years after the book’s first edition, it is clear that we are about to see Industry 4.0 “cross the chasm” because of the following five factors.
Factor one: The advent of 5G
It’s important to note that 5G isn’t “just another G.” Historically, factory automation was fixed function and connected via cable. A step in the right direction toward autonomy was 4G connectivity, but its basic bandwidth and latency issues prevented it from being a viable solution.
As Verizon’s Srini Kalapala said in a recent interview, “[In previous generations,] the technology focused on a single vector, either delivering more data in a better-quality voice or delivering voice across the nation. But when you look at 5G, we are not looking at delivering a single vector but actually looking at delivering across multiple vectors. And that is in a high throughput, [with] lower latency, better security and higher reliability—and all of these dimensions are delivering a service on demand within a matter of minutes. Now, to do that, it requires us to rethink the way we build the networks and actually transform on the way.”
Kalapala then discussed how 5G millimeter wave technology “allows us to deliver gigabytes’ worth of bandwidth to a single user.” Imagine gigabytes of data (~10x what is available today), wirelessly flowing to a single device with ultra-low latency security and reliability. Apply these ideas to the factory floor, and 5G is a game changer that will enable robots to unplug and run not just with automation but autonomously. This can create a smart factory with a level of flexibility that previously would have been considered only in science fiction.
Factor two: Covid-19, accelerating the inevitable
Covid-19 has served as a technology accelerator. In the Covid-19 industry impact survey we sponsored in mid-2020, we found that Covid-19 put 70% of 5G projects in the U.S., and 98% of 5G projects in China, on a fast track. As we looked to a broader selection of industries in the U.S. and China, we found that 39% and 43%, respectively, were in “Covid-19 survival mode,” while 35% and 33% reported that Covid-19 was prompting them to transform. (The priorities of the remainder were unchanged.)
We then compared investment between the factions. Using 100 as the index for those in survival mode, we found companies focused on transforming invested in these areas at the following rates: 5G as an accelerator (179), container-based development (173), digital transformation initiatives (159), artificial intelligence (134), cloud-native app development (133) and IoT development (122). If we’re being honest, everyone went into survival mode last year. The real difference is the outlook on the future. Surviving 2020 is one thing; surviving and thriving going forward will require investment.
Factor three: New-world approaches in need of a chasm crossing
The global Industry 4.0 market is projected to reach USD 260.71 billion by 2026, with a 16.3% CAGR during the forecast period of 2019 to 2026. The manufacturing leaders who are making these investments by adopting new technology have high expectations. In a second post–Covid-19 survey titled “5G and Industry 4.0,” U.S. and European manufacturers noted the adoption of new technologies leading them to a lift of 50% or more in customer satisfaction, internal confidence, competitive advantage and profit margins. To realize these gains, 50% of respondents expected to adopt 5G this year, and 81% within three years, in order to leverage these technologies in priority order: analytics, artificial intelligence, autonomous collaborative robotics, machine equipment diagnostics, cloud computing/cloud-native applications, cloud-to-edge PaaS, industrial automation, machine learning, digital twins, edge computing. These technologies need an intelligent edge to be effective.
Factor four: Adaptive, smart manufacturing, amplified by the power of the intelligent edge
Gartner expects that, by 2023, more than 50% of enterprise-generated data will be created and processed at the edge. Industry 4.0 and 5G are key drivers in this statistic. Part of the reason for this shift is that it is much less expensive to process data nearer to the source, since that avoids backhaul transport costs, but a key part of the value arises because the power of data often lies in or around the moment it is created, computed or sensed. For example, 5G edge could help a manufacturing plant that deals in heat-sensitive materials wirelessly monitor and adjust as needed across the entire production line to ensure optimal production, as well as alerting and adjusting to avoid costly failures.
The intelligent edge is the nexus of Industry 4.0 and 5G—the point where the processing will happen that leverages all that comes with 5G connectivity to enable the technology of Industry 4.0 to achieve our goals.
Factor five: Generational expectations, from Boomers to Zoomers
The last factor has to do with where we are in technology’s demographic shift. Pew Research determined in 2016 that Millennials had become the largest generation in the labor force. Most Millennials don’t remember a time without cellphones or the internet. Their expectations are different. Consider how commonplace it is to be able, by spending a few minutes on your phone, to conduct transactions that previously might have taken days or months using mail, telephones or in-person visits. As this and every other generation become more accustomed to convenience and personalization in their personal lives, they will also expect it in their work lives. The ability to adapt and personalize for your customers will undoubtedly be a success factor for the future, and pre–Industry 4.0 processes simply won’t cut it on their own.
Moore’s book was intended as a model, with strategies for bringing new products to market driven by a company or entity. In this article, we’ve discussed what is really a chasm crossing that has been driven by the emergence of the intelligent edge, which is a convergence of multiple products and technologies. As the intelligent edge concept and its actual infrastructure take hold, it will grow and spread exponentially, making this the time to be building intelligent systems at the edge.
